OPEC + will no longer be able to hold the oil market. The collapse has begun?
Moscow, November 30 - "Vesti.Ekonomika". Oil prices collapsed by almost 5%. A serious decline in quotations was generally expected, but most experts believed that the downtrend would begin after the OPEC + meeting.
It is worth noting that, despite the Friday crash, in November, oil prices showed a maximum increase since June.
However, the traders seem to have lost their nerves. The catalyst was the statements of the largest participants in the OPEC + transaction.
First, it became clear that Russia is not eager to further reduce production, and in general Russian oil companies do not want to limit themselves in production.
Secondly, according to Bloomberg sources, Saudi Arabia no longer wants to compensate for the reduction in production instead of those countries that do not fully fulfill their obligations.
In October, the kingdom produced 9.9 million barrels per day, and in November, according to Reuters, it reduced production to 9.85 million barrels per day with a quota of 10.02 million barrels.
Obviously, there has been a discord within OPEC +, and the oil market may be without support for some time. In such circumstances, speculators are happy to drive prices down, as is usually the case.
The oil market is very volatile, and a movement of 10 percent or more is a matter of two or three trading sessions.
However, during the week there are still chances for a rebound, and quotes of "black gold" can test recent highs. Everything will depend on the external background and the rumors with which the media will saturate the information space.
Recall that the OPEC + meeting is scheduled for December 6, that is, traders still have a whole week, but then, most likely, the fall in oil prices will resume, although it is also possible to exclude the continuation of the downtrend.
By the way, a drop in oil prices may coincide with a drop in stock indices in the United States. The correction is overdue, in addition, the S&P 500 index by and large is pulling only large technology stocks, their weight in the index already exceeds 20%.
However, this should be its own catalyst, which may be the lack of significant progress in the negotiations between the United States and China.
Some experts are sure that under the euphoric hype of a trade deal, there is a cold reality that a divorce has already taken place and any trade deal will only mean an official confirmation of the end of a relationship.
The divorce between China and the United States was mutual; each side took full advantage of the intense marriage, and each eagerly awaits the opportunity to cease to depend on the other.
Supply chains have already been disrupted, US companies are already leaving China for cheaper and friendlier countries, and for its part, China has clearly stated its intentions to break out of the control of the US dollar.